Assessing the impact of rapid growth of low-income settlements on service delivery in Lilongwe city, Malawi

Abstract

As urban populations grow, the demand for public services rises. This situation also obtains in Lilongwe City, the capital of Malawi. This study assessed the impacts of rapid growth in low-income settlements on delivery of water, electricity, and solid waste management. Using both quantitative and qualitative methods, primary data were collected from households and key informants through interviews using questionnaires and checklists. Spatial analysis of Landsat images from 2010 and 2023 were performed using the Normalized Difference Build-Up Index (NDBI) to assess land-use changes. The study showed that over a 13-year period, the population in low-income settlements nearly doubled from 166,132 to 301,567 and an increase in households from 37,757 to 68,538. The built-up areas expanded by 3,028.54 hectares, while vegetation decreased by 1,723 hectares, and bare land declined by 490 hectares. Logistic regression analysis identified annual income, land cost perceptions, and agricultural land preferences as key drivers of low-income settlement growth, explaining 63.7% of the variability (Nagelkerke R² = 0.637). Strong correlation was noted between increased household numbers and increased service demand for water (r = 1.0), electricity (r = 0.983), and waste collection (r = 0.915). Statistical analyses showed significant impacts of rapid urban growth on service delivery (ANOVA F-statistic = 231.24, p = 0.000). Approximately 65.6% of respondents in areas 25, 36, 38, 45, 49, and 53 reported an increase in lack of access to services. The study concludes that the spatial expansion of low-income settlements significantly affects service delivery. It is recommended that Lilongwe Council should adopt participatory planning and strengthen local governance systems to formalise customary land, expand water supply infrastructure, enforce zoning and development control to mitigate uncontrolled rapid spatial urban growth.