Interplay between climatic variability and nutritional outcomes among smallholder farmers in Malawi: case of Bolero in Rumphi district

Abstract

Malnutrition is among the top five health impacts of climate change. This study examines the influence of climate variability on the prevalence of wasting as an indicator of malnutrition, focusing on severe, moderate child, and maternal wasting among smallholder farming communities in Malawi. The research study analyzed the effects of temperature and rainfall variability on wasting, explored the role of crop yield variability, and assessed how crop yields moderate the climate-wasting relationship. Using a mixed-methods approach, the study combines quantitative analysis (Mann-Kendall trend tests, multiple regression, and moderator regression) with qualitative thematic analysis. The results indicate a significant increase in severe (p = 0.002), moderate (p < 0.0001), and maternal wasting (p < 0.0001) over time. Climate variability notably affects moderate and maternal wasting (R² = 0.91, p = 0.001 and R² = 0.94, p < 0.001), though crop yield variability showed no direct effect. However, groundnut and millet yields were found to moderate the relationship between climate variables and wasting, suggesting that agricultural interventions targeting these crops could mitigate climate-induced malnutrition (R² = 0.8, p = 0.024 and R² = 0.76, p = 0.046). The study recommends implementing programs that promote context-specific climate-smart agriculture and strengthen extension services to improve the productivity of specific crops that enhance the adaptive capacity of farming households. Monitoring mechanisms should be established to track the impact of interventions on both nutritional and agricultural outcomes. These findings highlight the importance of targeted agricultural policies in improving food security and resilience in the face of climate change.